February/March 2019 - Introduction -


Last month`s newsletter was incredibly hard to write. On both a fundamental and technical level the US markets made no sense whatsoever. Now that March is almost coming to an end, and numbers are starting to come out about the economic activity in the last quarter of 2018 and first months of 2019, things start to make sense again.

When I talk about “making sense” I don`t mean to say that the market became rational. Not at all. But I did finally find proof that the market was still being irrational, which can often be worth just as much. Let`s say Christmas sales did go through the roof, let`s say the tariffs on China did decrease the trade deficits, let`s say that the other major economies were picking up steam and pulling the U.S. along. Then the markets would have a valid reason to go up!
Unfortunately for Mr. Market, the data was looking bleak. Germany has dodged an official recession by 0.1%, Italy`s economy went down the drain, trade deficits with China went up even more, Industrial production in Spain went down, Singapore`s exports crashed, and so forth.
As I described last month, we saw a technically driven move in December, a headline driven move in January/February, and now we are on to the next part of this bear market, which is pure fundamentals. There used to be a time when markets were at least 6 months ahead of the economy, but it seems like lately the market is just trying to keep a blind eye as long as it possibly can.
So here we are, at the brink of recession in many developed countries worldwide, despite continuous heavy financial support by central banks. These central banks have done everything in their power to make the great recession of 2008 disappear, without fixing the underlying issues. They have used every single tool in their toolbox, without realizing that once the next inevitable economic cycle starts turning, there will be no more tools left to dampen it, or better yet, fix it.
It is human nature to prefer short term gains leading to long term pain, even though the opposite, short term pain leading to long term gains, is much more beneficial. This is true for both health and wealth. 

The Behavioural economist Daniel Kahneman would call the side of you that picks the short term gain the “system 1”, or the fast, reactive thinker, and the side of you that picks the long term gains the “system 2” or the slow, proactive thinker.
Interestingly, central banks don`t seem to be behaving any differently. They have been brought to life to counteract economic recessions by spending when the economy goes down and tightening when the economy is overheating. But the past 30 years, or since Alan Greenspan took the reins at the federal reserve, it seems like it has only been spending, without thinking about future consequences.
Personally, I think that it`s not a matter of wanting to spend, but more a matter of not having any other alternative. As you know, I like to zoom out and look at the bigger picture, and it shows me that the main culprit is the population growth.
Our system has been made in a way that we continuously borrow from future gains, knowing that the future will always look brighter than today. The future has always looked brighter for the next generation, for centuries in a row. Hence it has been engrained not only on the individual level, but also on the institutional level, that we can borrow our way out, no matter the financial mistakes we make. I see two main fallacies in this assumption. The first fallacy is the expectation that the (world) population keeps on growing. The second fallacy is the expectation that productivity keeps on growing.

Population growth means that there will be more consumption in the future, while productivity growth guarantees us that increasing demand is covered by the same amount of labour and tools.
The western populations have stopped growing, and it has now been for the first time ever that there are more people over 65 years old than people under 5 years old. In the first world countries,  birth rates are reaching all-time lows, which can`t be covered by the increase in life expectancy. In third world countries the populations are still growing, but the birth rates are already stagnating.
This means that the adage “borrowing from the future because the future always looks brighter”, will most likely end soon. We have never had a time in history when the world population started stagnating, even during times like the plague or world wars.
It`s much more difficult to measure productivity growth over the past centuries, although you will most likely agree that the industrial revolution that started in 1760, will never be surpassed when it comes to percentage increases.

Productivity growth can be divided into two sections; automation and education. While I do see continuous growth in automation (if I would bet against human ingenuity, I might as well quit), I think that we have reached a peak in education. Ask yourself this: what percentage of your childhood classmates is not working in the services industry right now? And what percentage does not have a diploma or a degree? Most likely the answer lies around the 10% mark. Everyone is aiming to get at least a bachelor`s degree, everyone`s aiming to get a nice job behind a computer, and everyone`s loading up on student debt. As weird and perhaps far-fetched as this might sound, I think we might have reached “peak education”. If everyone has a bachelor`s degree, then what is that degree still worth? If we are going to let machines do all our work in the future, then who is there to build these machines?

With this in mind, I think the central banks damn well know that we are reaching the end of the “borrow from the future” game and instead of biting the bullet and create short term pain which might result in long term gains, they just kick the can down the road and try to avoid the inevitable long term pain as long as they can. What would this short-term pain look like? One word, deleveraging. Governments, businesses and individuals need to start lowering their debt to income ratios by spending less and stop borrowing from future returns.  When a government starts deleveraging, it hurts their citizens in their pockets. Citizens start to revolt (because “my neighbour should tighten his belt, but i`m damn sure not going to tighten my own”) and populism rises.
How long can we kick the can further down the road until short term gains also equal short-term pain? At what point does printing another Dollar just make no more difference? 
This is the main question that i`ve been trying to explore, and it seems that it will take a lot more research to figure out how long it can actually take. If it`s up to the believers of the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), we should be kicking the can down the road into infinity, as long as countries borrow in the currency that they themselves can print. I think that MMT is a great example of my “peak education” theory; If everyone`s smart, then nobody`s smart, and if nobody`s smart, then weird theories could suddenly become mainstream.

Enjoy the ride, and don`t forget to stay positive after reading this newsletter, this too shall pass!

Robbert-John Sjollema








The information contained in this publication is not intended to constitute individual investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. The opinions expressed in this publication is that of the publisher and is subject to change without notice. The information in this publication may become outdated and there is no obligation to update any such information.

February/March 2019 - Bubbles and Bottoms for Consumers -


Consumer confidence has been going through the roof over the past 10 years, and nowhere can this be seen better than in New York. Consumer confidence ripped up 35 points to a new record of 138.8. This is despite declining property prices in the big apple.



Normally, if consumers become more confident, they start spending more. But it seems that in this case, retail sales have been going down the drain while consumers got more confident in the economy. The recent decline in retail sales has seen the highest month over month decline since January 2000.



Looking at the difference between the consumer confidence present situation index, and the consumer confidence expectations index, there is a massive spread growing, which is only comparable to the situation around the year 2000. It means that consumers are confident in the current business and labour market conditions, but that they are worried about the short-term outlook for these conditions. As you can see, a dip in this spread is always followed by a recession.


Another interesting chart is the consumer confidence labour differential. This is the percentage of respondents who say “jobs are plentiful” minus the percentage of respondents who say “jobs are hard to get”. This is moving in the direction of the 2001 highs and explains why consumers are so confident.


These charts all look great, but interestingly enough the average length of joblessness is still very high if you compare it with the levels during previous decades. It`s great that it has declined from an average of 40 weeks in 2012, to an average of 20 weeks now, but will we ever be able to go back to the levels in the past, when someone didn`t have to look for a job longer than 15 weeks? How can it be that a record number of people say that jobs are plentiful, while it still takes very long to find that job? Didn`t technology bring employers and employees closer to each other than ever in the form of job websites and platforms like Linkedin?  


Perhaps it has to do with the ever-aging population. In the following chart you`ll see that we have reached the first time in history where there are more people in the world over 65 years old, than under 5 years old. This pattern will most likely never turn back to “normal”. 


This shift in demographics will impact everything from consumption levels to savings rates to housing prices, and eventually to economic growth expectations. Because populations in first world countries are declining, there`s a real issue in employment rates. In a country like Japan, the unemployment rate is now at 2.4%, which basically means that everyone who`s able to work, works. This means that women, who traditionally didn`t work and took care of the household and the family, are now also fully part of the labour force. Since 2013, a higher percentage of Japanese women are now part of the labour force than American women! 




He who does not labour and yet eats, eats stolen food. 
- Mahatma Gandhi -







The information contained in this publication is not intended to constitute individual investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. The opinions expressed in this publication is that of the publisher and is subject to change without notice. The information in this publication may become outdated and there is no obligation to update any such information.





February/March 2019 - Bubbles and Bottoms for Companies -


It seems like businesses are having the same kind of mindset as consumers: positive today, but very wary about the future.
Commercial and industrial loans are still rising, month after month, since 2011.



But some cracks are starting to show in the profit margins and the earnings outlook. Profit margins seem to have peaked in the third quarter of 2018, with no immediate return to this peak in sight. This is also very nicely visualised over the long term, supported by clear one-liners that indicate the reason for these levels of earnings.  One can say that the peak in earnings in Q3 last year was because of the one-time tax cuts, and are now fully baked in.



Meanwhile, small businesses are becoming downright negative about the future, with the largest 2 months decline on record when it comes to answering the question: “is it a good time to expand”.





The information contained in this publication is not intended to constitute individual investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. The opinions expressed in this publication is that of the publisher and is subject to change without notice. The information in this publication may become outdated and there is no obligation to update any such information.





February/March 2019 - Bubbles and Bottoms for Stock Markets -


Markets are having an absolute blast and are now showing one of the best early year performances ever. The first 36 trading days showed an 11.4% increase in the S&P 500 (which is the best performance since 1987), while yesterday the Nasdaq officially moved 20% from its lows and is considered to be back in a bull market.


If the S&P 500 would rebound and get out of a bear market, it would officially be one of the shortest bear markets on record. 


Breaking records all over the place, the S&P 500 is also in the top 10 when it comes to consecutive closes above the 10 day moving average. Are those kinds of statistics silly and kind of untradeable? Yes, but it does show the exuberance that has taken a hold of the markets again since boxing day, and it will most likely end in tears.


The 50 day moving average is another one that is being used to show that markets are breaking records again. This time the chart shows that 98% of the Dow Jones stocks are now above their 50 day moving average. The last time this happened was 3 years ago, and it`s only been at or above that level 14 times since 2009.



One last chart about moving averages, this time comparing the 50 day moving average, with the 150 and 200 day moving average. Normally these should move relatively in tandem, but when a big spread starts to occur, one can assume that the 50 day moving average will eventually revert to the mean.


Most of the increase over the past 2 months can be traced back to one simple metric: margin debt. It has increased again in January and seems to always move in tandem with the stock market. It has been off its lows of 669 Billion USD from last May but is still elevated at 568 Billion USD. Just in January, this has gone up by 3%.


The biggest increases since 26 December go to the stocks that are listed on the Nasdaq. It is now up 10 weeks in a row, and this “winning streak” puts it at the fifth longest streak ever. 


Commercial hedgers were net long over 9 Billion USD worth of Nasdaq index futures late January, the highest since the financial crisis.


Where will the market go over the next months? My base scenario is still that this is a bear market rally. Good news regarding Brexit or the China tariffs might push up the markets short term, but I don`t think the markets will be able to hold these gains for long.

World trade has gone off a cliff and this can be clearly seen in the Baltic Dry Index, which tracks dry bulk shipping stocks and is seen as a general shipping market bellwether. According to the below chart, there is about a 2-month delay in the S&P 500 price action compared to that of the Baltic Dry Index. As you can see, the index has literally fallen off a cliff since mid-December 2018.



The Baltic Dry Index is only one of many indicators that show a warning sign for the months to come. Another great indicator is the fact that volume has been going down over the past 2 months, while the markets have been going up. When healthy markets go up, volume goes up as well. This makes sense, as more and more people can`t afford to “stand on the sidelines” anymore and join the rally. When the opposite happens, it normally means that people have no confidence in the rally, and it is destined to come back down. 


The bottom part of this graph shows the volume. You can see that the red bars (sell volume) increased a lot since the beginning of October. However, the moment when the buying started on 26 December, volumes started going down, and are now lower than at any point in 2018.

Another indicator that shows unprecedented levels, is the share of S&P 500 market cap that is being held short. This indicator is now at a 12-year low and has plunged over the past weeks. Are we seeing pure complacency?


This complacency is accompanied by price to equity ratios, or PE ratios, that are only being surpassed by the 2000 high of about 28. As you can see, the current PE ratio sits between the dot com bubble high, the great depression high, and the great recession high. These are not the recessions you want to be affiliated with!



There is a time to diversify and a time to concentrate. If you are just beginning to create wealth, you concentrate. You pick a strong investment and throw your whole energy into it.Don`t dissipate your energies in a dozen different directions.Become an expert, and when you fail, learn from your failures; add this precious knowledge to your storehouse and proceed to correct the mistake in the future. - Robert G Allen -


Another worrying chart is the following. It tells the cash to debt ratio of companies excluding financials. 5% of S&P 500 companies hold more than half the overall cash. The other 95% of companies have cash to debt levels that are the lowest since at least 2004.


I`ll close this depressing chapter with a look at the history of bull and bear markets since 1926. The average bull market lasts 9.1 years, and gives you an average return of 480%, while an average bear market lasts 1.4 years, and has an average decline of 41% (remember, a 40% decline equals a gain of 250%).


One can see that it`s much safer to be on the long side than to go short in the markets. The chances of being right are just much higher. However, IF a bear market starts, it can wipe out years of gains in a matter of months. As a matter of fact, bear markets move 6.5 times faster than bull markets, so in 2 months it can wipe out a year of gains. This can be seen over and over again, with last December as the most recent example.
It has now been exactly 10 years ago since the bottom in the S&P 500 was hit. 10 years is a long time, but if you look at the chart, you can see that most bull markets lasted longer than 12 years.



Monetary policy is a blunt tool which certainly affects the distribution of income and wealth, although whether the net effect is to increase or reduce inequality is not clear. 
- Ben Bernanke -










The information contained in this publication is not intended to constitute individual investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. The opinions expressed in this publication is that of the publisher and is subject to change without notice. The information in this publication may become outdated and there is no obligation to update any such information.


February/March 2019 - Bubbles and Bottoms for Governments -

As said in the introduction, many economic indicators came out over the past month, showing the Q4 performance of 2018 and performance of the first two months of the new year. Here`s an oversight of the overall performance:
Retail sales are down
Personal income is down
Consumer spending is down
Industrial production is down
Manufacturing activity is down
Consumer sentiment (UMich) is down
Housing starts are down
Existing home sales are down



And this is just for the United States. In the rest of the world the numbers start to look bleak as well, in particular in Europe, China and Singapore. Below you can see Singapore`s year over year exports declining by 10.1% for the month of January.


Spain`s industrial production has been falling off a cliff.


Italy`s Industrial sales has suddenly plunged in December to levels last seen in 2009.


Germany narrowly missed a recession by growing 0.02% over the last quarter.


China`s imports from the U.S. have gone down more than 40% over the past 2 months.


China`s Purchasing Managers Index declines over the past months do not bode well for the U.S. durable goods orders, as they tend to trail them.


It is no surprise then to see that the recession probability is in its 95th percentile according to Ned Davis Research, which tracks a multitude of economic indicators and compiles it into their own model.


Topping this up with the fact that this is now the second longest economic expansion in history, and you can make a relative safe bet that the next recession is around the corner.


Now here`s an interesting fact: as you could see in the previous chart about bull and bear markets, there has been plenty more bull markets which have been longer than the current one. But when it comes to economic expansions, we`re at the peak. How does that work? 
Looking at the bull and bear market chart, you start to notice that many bull markets have had recessions during their run! That was quite the revelation for me! Then the next question is: does every recession coincide with a bear market? And the answer is no, not at all! Only 53% of recessions coincided with a bear market!

My last question was then: does every bear market coincide with a recession? And the answer is yes, but, only if they`re longer than 6 months. If you count any duration of a bear market, then the odds are 62.5%.



To put it in percentages:

- Recession during bull market: 55% of the time
- Recession during Bear market: 53% of the time
- Bear market during recession: 100% of the time if they`re longer than 6 months, 62.5% of the time for any duration

If there`s any information to be taken out of these statistics, it`s that we really don`t want any recession longer than 6 months! We also don`t have to worry too much about a bear market though, as only 52% of these actually end up in a recession (you lose money on your stocks, but hey, you get to keep your job!)









The information contained in this publication is not intended to constitute individual investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. The opinions expressed in this publication is that of the publisher and is subject to change without notice. The information in this publication may become outdated and there is no obligation to update any such information.






February/March 2019 - Summary -


The past two newsletters have been incredibly difficult to write. Not because the markets went up and i`m secretly a big bear, but because they went up for no apparent reason. Yes, stocks were oversold on 24 December, but from a technical perspective, the rally should have stalled around late January, when stocks were up 10%. Stocks kept on going up however, and I just couldn`t find a good reason why. This is the main problem with the stock market though: Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Or in my case, Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay sane.

The market`s performance is just a numerical depiction of an incredibly complex machine. A machine so complex that you and I will never understand it. And that`s exactly what intrigues me about it. It will make you feel stupid for the rest of your life. But in hindsight, it always makes sense! It reflects population growth and demographics, productivity growth and innovation, its valuation is created by the colour of a political party, a natural disaster, the combined effort of every single person on this planet and how much money this person saves, what this person eats for breakfast, what car he or she drives. Every single action of every single human and every geographic location has in some way or form shaped, or will shape, the valuation of this machine.

And what can make this machine act really irrational? A Single. Fucking. Tweet.

If you think that the Federal Reserve is the biggest manipulator of the market, guess again. The Federal Reserve at least puts their money where their mouth is (so far at least), while someone like Donald Trump is blasting out false information through his twitter account, making statements about information that is either incorrect or about events that will likely never take place.
How can normal price discovery take place, if one single person has the power to change this price with a few strokes on a keyboard?

Despite the market`s highly irrational behaviour however, I still have faith in the fact that in the long run, every single dollar that has been “pumped up” by Donald Trump will eventually fall in the right hands at the right valuation. We already see less and less reaction from the market every time Trump tries to boost it with a tweet, and I think that eventually it will become numb to any kind of information coming out of his twitter account.

Even if Trump manages to keep the market up, there is still a 55% chance of a recession, which is not something to look forward to, but it is something to keep in mind. Ask yourself this: would you prefer to keep your job but lose money on your stocks, or vice versa?

Thank you for reading, and don`t forget to stay positive!

Robbert-John Sjollema







The information contained in this publication is not intended to constitute individual investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. The opinions expressed in this publication is that of the publisher and is subject to change without notice. The information in this publication may become outdated and there is no obligation to update any such information.