October 2018 - Introduction -

Global stocks have lost nearly 8 Trillion Dollars this October month, that`s the most in one month since 2008.
This comes after months and even years of exuberance, not only in the U.S., but in practically every single country in the world. The next question that is on everyone`s mind is of course: is this it?

I started this newsletter 3 months ago with a very clear reason: to warn my friends and family with a loudspeaker, instead of merely casually bringing up the subject during gatherings. Metrics such as stock market valuations (see my past remarks here and here), corporate debt (here, here and here), government debt (here, here and here) credit card loans and student loans (here, here and here) showed me that we have hit levels in the economy that have in the past coincided with the start of the next economic downturn. As these metrics are at such extreme levels, the following downturn will likely be just as extreme.

Has my goal been accomplished, now that the S&P 500 is down by less than 5% at the time of writing? Not at all. The rapid decline in the U.S. stock markets has taken many people by surprise, and I hope that you, the reader, has seen this coming from miles away and know that this might just be the beginning of something even more ugly.
My previous newsletters were mostly about the macroeconomic picture; government policies, commodities, and corporations and consumers in general. The health of all these 4 “pillars” is reflected in one single indicator: the stock market. Hence this newsletter`s large focus on the stock market and its performance in the past month, as well as a prediction about its future direction.

“Stock market bubbles don`t grow out of thin air. 
They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception.”

- George Soros -

Enjoy the ride, and don`t forget to stay positive after reading this newsletter, this too shall pass!

Robbert-John Sjollema 

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The information contained in this publication is not intended to constitute individual investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. The opinions expressed in this publication is that of the publisher and is subject to change without notice. The information in this publication may become outdated and there is no obligation to update any such information.